February 20, 2018 Real Estate Trends - The Wild Ride

We are dedicated to helping Americans achieve and maintain the American Dream of Homeownership. Our commitment is to provide the highest quality service while working to help our clients achieve their financial objectives within the real estate process. We are proud of our work that has made us the area's company of choice for so many working towards their long-term goals. February 20, 2018 The Wild Ride Several weeks ago, we spoke about the negative effects of economic growth. The two factors we cited were higher interest rates and higher oil prices. Now we are starting to see the markets react to this new reality. Many are blaming rising interest rates for causing what we can now call a stock market correction. A correction which we have not seen for some time. Why would higher rates cause stocks to falter? Abnormally low rates have propped up the markets for years. Why keep your money in the bank earning 1.0% interest when you can earn 10% or more in the stock market? That is an over-simplification, but certainly higher rates are taking some of this extra stimulus out of the equation. Not that rising rates are the only explanation with regard to the trepidation in stocks. As we also explained several weeks ago, the tax plan was great news for stocks because it immediately made companies more profitable by lowering their tax rates significantly. Stocks have been rallying for nine years, comprising the second longest bull market in history, but the rally intensified in anticipation of the tax plan. We surmised that all the good tax news was already built into stocks, but the rally continued anyway -- until rates started rising. The question now is whether this is just a healthy and long-overdue correction which may reverse quickly, or is it the beginning of the end for the bull run? As always, we will stay away from predictions. Rates could ease back down or stabilize -- and the market could climb back. Right now, the economy is healthy and rates have not risen far enough to cause the economy to pause. Actually, if the growth eased a bit, this could cause the Federal Reserve Board to be less concerned with inflationary pressures and perhaps permit them to take their foot off the pedal. For now, we have a pretty wild ride going on. A government shut-down has been averted and the compromise has produced good news for real estate. The two-year, $400 billion spending deal came as a result of a bipartisan group of lawmakers supporting the agreement. Congress now has until March 23 to write the legislation to accompany the spending deal that will fund the government for the rest of the fiscal year. The National Association of REALTORS® fought and achieved a number of wins for real estate, including a temporary extension of federal flood insurance and extension of NAR-backed tax provisions. Here are the details: • Flood insurance. The National Flood Insurance Program has been extended until March 23, giving lawmakers time to work out an extension that could last until September 30. The deal also adds $27 billion in mitigation and resiliency funds to address issues arising from last year’s hurricanes, and it makes $12 billion available under the Community Development Block Grant program to fund U.S. Army Corp of Engineers flood mitigation projects. • Extension of tax provisions. The deal retroactively extends provisions for the 2017 tax year for mortgage debt forgiveness; mortgage insurance premiums and energy efficiency improvements in commercial buildings. • Tax Credit. The nonbusiness energy property tax credit applies to ten percent of the amount paid for qualified energy efficiency improvements such as energy-saving roofs, windows, skylights, and doors, and 100 percent of that paid for qualified energy products, such as high-efficiency water heaters, air conditioning units, and furnaces. Source: REALTOR® Magazine Existing-home sales in 2017 surged to the best year for sales in 11 years, the National Association of Realtors® reported. Total existing-home sales—which include completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops—rose 1.1 percent in 2017 to a 5.51 million sales pace. The sales pace surpassed 2016’s 5.45 million, which had been the highest pace since 2006. End-of-the-year sales numbers were overcast somewhat by a slower sales pace in December. Existing-home sales decreased 3.6 percent in December month over month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million. “Existing sales concluded the year on a softer note, but they were guided higher these last 12 months by a multi-streak of exceptional job growth, which ignited buyer demand,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “At the same time, market conditions were far from perfect. New listings struggled to keep up with what was sold very quickly, and buying became less affordable in a large swath of the country. These two factors ultimately muted what should have been a stronger sales pace.” The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $246,800, which is 5.8 percent higher than a year ago. First-time home purchasers comprised 32 percent of sales in December, up from 29 percent in November. Source: NAR Keith Stewart 773-529-7000