Chicago's Mortgage Choice - August 29, 2017 Real Estate Report - Fall Forward

Though the calendar states that fall comes later in September, Labor Day weekend is actually the real end of summer for most Americans. It means back to school for the kids and the end of vacation season. Congress is back in session after their August recess. Though many think that Congressmen go on vacation during recesses, most are back in their districts meeting with their staffers and gauging the temperature of their constituents. Fall starts the second homebuying season of the year. Though not as strong as the spring season, the fall is a time that people list their homes and want to be settled in a new home before the holiday season arrives. This fall we are hopeful that more are listing their homes because the market has been constrained by a listing shortage. Before we go out to enjoy the Labor Day weekend, we will have something of an economic report anomaly. Since the first day of September is on Friday, the employment report will be released early before the holiday weekend starts. Many will be on vacation this week and others will be leaving early for the holiday. Thus, the markets may be prone towards more volatility if there is a surprise in the report. If there is a surprise, it will be like saying -- Surprise, we had ___ jobs added. Have a nice holiday weekend to think about it! Keith Stewart 773-529-7000

Chicago's Mortgage Choice - August 22, 2017 Real Estate Report - Saber Rattling

Last week we spoke about the Dog Days of Summer when things are expected to be quiet. On the other hand, we also indicated that the world does not take vacation in August and unexpected events can have a greater affect upon the markets when so many are on vacation. And so it is with regard to the North Korean situation. Thankfully, thus far this is not an event, but a heightened course of saber rattling threatening all sorts of things. Of course, we were all hopeful there would be no event, and that the sabers would quiet down. But we have seen more volatility in the markets as a result of all of the noise. And the events in Europe late last week just added to the consternation. Even so, the drop in stocks has been miniscule as compared to the rally we have witnessed over the past nine months. Even without these events, one would be quite surprised if there are not more mini-corrections in store for the markets because of how far they have moved to the upside. Another area affected by the noise is interest rates. It is hard to tell whether the recent moderate drop in long-term rates is due to a flight to safety in anticipation of a possible crisis, or a reaction to the news that the economy continues to grow along with reports that are showing inflation continues to be contained. With the markets, we never know why they move, and in this case the easing of long-term rates could be a result of several factors. The move could also be quite temporary. Thus, if you are house or car shopping, you may only have a small window of opportunity. Keith Stewart 773-529-7000

Chicago's Mortgage Choice - August 8, 2017 Real Estate Report - The Economic Expansion Continues

The long road back from the Great Recession began in mid-2009 and July marks the 96th month of recovery. This makes it the third longest expansion on record, and if we continue at the present pace, this recovery will become the second longest expansion in history in the middle of next year. There are two reasons for the length of this recovery. First, the Great Recession was a very deep recession, thus we had a very long road back. Second, the recovery has been slow and steady. Even though our growth has not been strong, we have stayed out of a recession partly because the economy has not overheated. If the economic expansion did heat up, then interest rates would be much higher and this could endanger the recovery. We have enjoyed very low interest rates for the past decade and this year is no exception. Nowhere is the length of the recovery more evident than the jobs market. The economy lost close to nine million jobs in a very short period of time. In the decade that has followed, we have added approximately 17 million jobs. While these are really strong numbers, we have only added eight million jobs net of the recession, and this averages out to less than one million per year over the past decade. This helps us put July's job numbers in perspective. We added just over 200,000 jobs for the month with an unemployment rate of 4.3%, both solid numbers. We still have some work to do in creating better paying jobs and taking care of those who have left the workforce but did not retire. However, we have come a long, long way. Keith Stewart 773-529-7000