Tuesday, August 12, 2014

August 12, 2014 Real Estate Report - The Aftermath

We have had a week to consider the barrage of data released during the last week of the month and the first days of August. The markets were very volatile during this period with the Dow moving from record territory by mid-July to a 2.5% loss in one week and negative territory for the year as of August 1. Other markets moved as well during this period as oil moved down below $100 per barrel the same week and long-term interest rates were also volatile. Previously we asked why rates are staying so low if it looks like the economy is rebounding. As a matter of fact, one of the reasons the stock market reacted so negatively to the good news regarding the economy is that there was a concern the Federal Reserve Board might raise rates more rapidly than expected. The Fed even noted in its recent announcement that inflation was moving closer to their target numbers. We note that this was just one reason for the negative reaction in the stock market. There were others. For example, there continues to be plenty of political and financial turmoil overseas. Plus, with the Dow and S&P reaching record territory again and again in the first half of the year, the markets could have been due for a correction. Keep in mind that if the Fed does raise their benchmark rates, short-term rates will rise. But this is no guarantee that long-term rates will also rise. With international turmoil and plenty of negative economic news to balance the overall good reports we have seen, long-term rates are more likely to go up if the markets feel that the Fed is over-stimulating the economy. In other words, the Fed paring down the purchases of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities and talking about raising rates can actually ease the concerns of the markets and keep long-term rates stable. At least for now. The Fed and the markets will be watching the real estate markets closely from here because this is the one area which has been weak and the economy is not likely to overheat while real estate sales continue to be sluggish. Keith Stewart 773-529-7000

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