June 17, 2014 Real Estate Report- Beyond The Numbers

We have received some good news over the past few months regarding employment growth. The creation of jobs is the most important function of the economy. When people can find jobs, this creates confidence. When people are secure in their jobs they tend to spend more. This includes large purchases such as houses and cars. Of course, the real estate sector is another huge factor within our economy. So, the next question is--how good are the job numbers? Here is the good news, May represented the fourth consecutive month of jobs gains over 200,000 and that is the first time that has happened since 1999. On the negative side, the labor participation rate was 62.8%, which was unchanged from April. This is the lowest rate in decades. We do understand that this number is affected by the number of people retiring and with baby boomers aging there are record numbers retiring. But it is also affected by the fact that the population has been growing. A few weeks ago, we pointed out that the population growth of our country may be poised to present us with a housing shortage in the future. Well, it also means that we must create more jobs than ever before and that has not happened yet. We lost 8.7 million jobs during the recession. Again, the good news is as of May these jobs have been recovered over the past four years. That is a rate of approximately 180,000 jobs per month. We are now creating jobs at over 200,000 per month. If we can create jobs at a rate of 200,000 to 250,000 per month this would appear to help us catch up with population growth in a few years and lower the unemployment rate further. We believe as more people obtain gainful employment, they will spend more money and this will spur housing and other sectors of the economy which will create more jobs. That is what a virtuous cycle is all about and that is why this "200,000" number is so important. When the Fed meets starting today, you can be sure that these employment numbers will get a lot of attention from the members of the Federal Open Market Committee. Keith Stewart 773-529-7000