April 1, 2014 Real Estate Report - April Fools' Day

We had a very robust last half of 2013. The economy expanded and the job creation machine heated up. The Federal Reserve Board predicted even stronger growth this year. So what happened? We saw the economy take a step back, especially with regard to the creation of jobs. Even the real estate market seems to have quieted down since roaring back in 2013. This has given us a lot of fuel for speculation. We have speculated about the weather and political situations such as Ukraine having at least a temporary effect. Yet we go into April wondering whether late last year was a mirage or did we just decide to all stay inside during the cold weather. This speculation makes the jobs report to be released on Friday very important. We had some improvement in job creation in February after weak reports for December and January. Yet we are still far below the levels of the second half of 2013. Most market watchers are not expecting the employment numbers to bounce right back. But they are expecting continued improvement, especially in light of the fact that first time claims for unemployment fell significantly during the middle part of March. There were still plenty of winter storms in March but with the days getting longer and temperatures rising, the stage is set for some level of progress. At this point a very poor or a very strong jobs report would be a surprise. In March we set the clocks forward one hour. Today we have April Fools' Day. Hopefully spring is really here to stay. Keith Stewart 773-529-7000