March 11, 2014 Real Estate Report - Spring Thaw?

Here is about the only thing we will predict. This winter is not lasting forever. It may seem like it has lasted forever but a spring thaw will come. When it comes, we will see that many Americans will emerge from their homes with a bad case of cabin fever. What will we do when the weather is nice? Well, many will wash the salt off their cars. Others will go looking at cars, homes and furniture. Still others will start spring cleaning and see that they need to begin home improvement projects. The next question is -- will they just look or will they buy? We know some will come out and spend. This will give a boost to the economy, but we don't know how much of a lift the economy will experience. We do know that the winter slowdown is a temporary phenomenon, but we also know that short- term factors can affect long-term performance. The winter lull could have a lasting effect upon growth in 2014 or if the consumer comes out roaring with our spring thaw it will be but a small speed bump in the road as opposed to a big winter pot hole. Did February's jobs report give us a clue? It would have been easy to write off poor numbers to bad weather if we did not have two disappointing jobs reports preceding February's release. As it turns out the number for February did not give us a clear picture. The new jobs created were 175,000 and this was slightly more than expected, but certainly not something that would make us forget December and January. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.7%, which was slightly higher than expected, but last month the rate dropped by the same amount. The revision of the data from the previous two months also did not show a clear picture as the previous numbers were revised higher, but by a nominal amount. Looks like we will have to wait for March and April to see how strong the thaw is going to be. Keith Stewart 773-529-7000