February 11, 2014 Real Estate Report - Is It The Weather?

For the past three quarters, the economy has grown at an annual rate of just under 3.5% based upon the preliminary numbers released in late January for the 4th quarter. This growth rate is even more impressive when you consider the fact that we endured a government shutdown for part of the last quarter of 2013. It is estimated that this shutdown knocked approximately 1% off the growth rate for the 4th quarter. A 3.5% growth rate, while not smoking hot, is strong enough to bring down unemployment while not igniting fears of inflation. A pretty good balance. And this balanced growth is a good indication as to why the stock markets rallied strongly in 2013 while long-term interest rates rose. Now we ask whether this growth rate is sustainable for 2014. We had several weak reports released in January, including the December jobs report and a slowing housing sector. Some have hypothesized that the severe winter weather in December and even worse weather in January is the culprit. If this is the case, the numbers should bounce back--including the stock market and rates, both of which fell in January. Keep in mind that storms actually can boost some sectors of the economy such as the use of energy. Our heating bills are telling us that. Last week's release of January's jobs report was another mixed bag with the unemployment rate unexpectedly moving down slightly to 6.6% but the total jobs created below forecast at 113,000. It is interesting to see both the number for January and also the revision of the previous months' numbers as there was very little adjustment to the disappointing December release but upwards adjustments in previous months. Weather related slowdown? With regard to jobs creation we certainly hope this is the case. We think everyone is hoping for a warmer February, though it has not started out that way. Keith Stewart 773-529-7000